Displacement in Place and the Financial Crisis in Lebanon.

Displacement is underway in Lebanon after financial collapse, but not as events of migration, rather, as processual disruption to people's lives that begins in place, preceding the potential outcome of forced migration. Financial collapse has shifted the population into extremes of constraint, dispossessing them of assets needed to live in valued ways. Widely circulated claims of an exodus are premature. Historic mass emigration from Lebanon occurred in times of capital availability whilst today's financial collapse denies most people of the capital needed to emigrate. Migration remains limited to the few with social and cultural capital unaffected by the crisis. This article was prompted by the author's observations of financial collapse whilst living in Lebanon in 2020 and long-standing engagement with the country. Regardless of whether mass emigration occurs, perhaps after the economy's recapitalization, the displacement process already underway warrants attention from refugee and forced migration studies.

Methodological approaches to measuring mental health in a cost-of-living crisis: A rapid review.

BACKGROUND: Cost-of-living crises are damaging to population mental health and require a public health response. It is important to assess whether public health interventions are effective. We aimed to identify population-level methods and measures and the appropriateness of the measures for vulnerable populations. METHODS: A rapid evidence review was undertaken. Nineteen databases, including grey literature, were searched for evidence published between 1970 and April 2023. RESULTS: Seven reviews, nine primary studies and two reports from grey literature were identified. Methods consisted of analyses of existing data from national or regional cohort studies, household panel surveys, repeated cross-sectional surveys, routine medical data, or data on suicide death rates. Twelve brief validated mental health measurement tools, embedded in population-level surveys, were identified. Two quasi-experimental studies used data from a UK household panel survey to examine the impact of the introduction of specific welfare policies on mental health. Studies identified socio-economic vulnerabilities, but it was not possible to determine whether data were effectively captured from people from minority ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: Population-level surveys can be used in quasi-experimental studies to measure the effects of a public health initiative with specific roll out dates to tackle cost-of-living impacts. It is unclear as to whether the identified methods and tools are suitable for use with people from minority ethnic groups.

The policy and politics of healthcare corporatisation: The case of the English NHS.

RATIONALE: Few accounts of healthcare corporatisation examine the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. New Politics of the Welfare State (NPWS) theories recognise the relevance of crises but give more attention to programmatic than systemic (structural) retrenchment, and little to healthcare corporatisation. OBJECTIVE: To examine what changes the 2008 financial crisis produced in the pattern of healthcare corporatisation, and the implications for NPWS theories. METHODS: Using administrative data from the English NHS during 1995-2019 we formulated a multi-dimensional index of corporatisation, tested its validity, and used it to analyse longitudinally how the financial crisis affected the balance between the responsibilization of management and re-commodification (introduction of market-like practices) in provider corporatisation. RESULTS: The financial crisis influenced NHS corporatisation through the fiscal austerity with which governments responded. The re-commodification of NHS providers stalled but not the responsibilization of NHS managers. CONCLUSIONS: The corporatisation of NHS providers faltered after the financial crisis. These findings corroborate parts of NPWS theory but also reveal scope for further elaborating its accounts of systemic retrenchment in health systems.

Adherence to treatment and harmful effects of medication shortages in the context of severe crises: scale validation and correlates.

BACKGROUND: Medication shortage is a public health problem, affecting patients' outcomes mainly through the difficulty in maintaining adherence, particularly in the context of a severe economic crisis. There is a need for a new scale that assesses the effect of medication shortage on adherence. AIM: To develop and validate a scale to evaluate the harmful impact of medication shortage among the general Lebanese population and assess its correlates and association with medication adherence. METHODS: A questionnaire was used to assess medication shortage harmful effects and patients' adherence, allowing to generate the Harmful Impact of Medication Shortage scale (HIMS). The factor analysis, convergent validity and reliability of the generated scale were assessed, followed by multivariable regressions to evaluate its correlates. RESULTS: The developed HIMS scale is a 9-item tool, used to assess how difficult it was for people to deal with medication shortages and their harmful effects on treatment. It was significantly and inversely linked to treatment adherence and affected by the patients' socioeconomic status and the type of chronic disease. CONCLUSION: The Harmful Impact of Medication Shortage scale could be an efficient tool to measure the detrimental effects of medication shortages among the Lebanese adult population with chronic diseases, particularly affecting treatment adherence. Future studies and evidence are still needed to confirm our findings and help build global mitigation policies addressing medication shortages.

The impact of national and international financial crises on mental health and well-being: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that financial crises and poor mental health are reciprocally related, but no systematic review has been conducted to synthesise the existing literature on the impact of national and international financial crises on population-level mental health and well-being. AIMS: The aim of this study was to systematically review the available literature on the global impact of financial crises on mental health and well-being outcomes. METHODS: After registration on PROSPERO, a systematic search was conducted in PsycINFO, MEDLINE, Wiley, and Web of Science for papers published until 21 November 2022. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement, 98 papers were identified as meeting eligibility criteria. Included studies were assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) and results were presented in a formal narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Our findings show that financial crises are significantly associated with well-being and occurrence of psychological conditions. Several socio-demographic, cultural, and country-specific characteristics played a crucial role in the prevention of population mental health decline in periods of financial crises. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the findings of this review, evidence-based recommendations were developed to guide the design of policy actions that protect population mental health during and after financial crises.

The relationship between sovereign credit rating changes and firm risk.

Sovereign credit ratings, extensively studied for their influence on macroeconomics and country risk, have been less explored in the context of their impact on individual firms. This research delves into the effects of sovereign credit rating changes on firm risk. Our findings suggest that an upgrade in sovereign credit ratings decreases firm risk, while a downgrade amplifies it. Furthermore, the magnitude of a country's rating shift positively correlates with changes in firm risk. We also discern a contagion effect between trade-dependent countries: an elevated rating in one country diminishes the firm risk in its trading partner, and vice versa. When categorizing our data into developed and developing markets, we observe that firm risk in developed markets reacts more acutely to rating upgrades. Conversely, rating downgrades, whether domestic or in trade-associated countries, intensify firm risk in developing markets. A robustness check, which evaluates sovereign credit rating fluctuations outside of financial crises, corroborates our core findings.

The dynamic network of industries in US stock market: Evidence of GFC, COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.

We investigate the topology of sectoral returns in the US stock market using minimum spanning tree (MST) analysis. We examine four distinct time periods: the full period, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war period. By comparing the static results across these periods, we identify differences in the network structure. Additionally, a rolling window analysis is conducted to explore the time-varying nature of the MST. We employ a TVP-VAR based connectedness framework to ensure a robust analysis of the sectoral return linkages. Our main findings are summarized as follows: First, the structure of the MST varies in different periods, with distinct crisis period structures. During the GFC, the industrial sector dominated clustering, whereas COVID-19 affected the financial, IT, and industrial sectors. The Russia-Ukraine war period showed clustering centered on materials, except in the industrial sector. These varying structures may explain the different characteristics of each crisis. Second, both static and rolling window analyses highlight the significance of the industrial sector in the US stock market. Third, the utilities sector exhibits the lowest centrality measures, indicating its minimal importance and lack of relationships with other industries. These findings provide valuable insights into the interrelationships among industries in the US stock market. Market participants can leverage these findings to enhance their understanding and improve their portfolio management. By utilizing this information, investors can develop optimal diversification strategies to maximize returns and minimize risk.

Aggregated imports and expenditure components in Bangladesh: A cointegration and equilibrium correction analysis.

Even though there have been a few studies on Bangladesh's aggregate import demand, the effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on aggregate import demand still need to be measured. The short-run determinants of import demand also remained to be identified in the country. This paper explores both short-run dynamic and long-run cointegrating relationships, capturing the impact of the GFC on aggregate import demand. This study uses annual data from 1980 to 2021 (N = 42) and employs different econometric techniques for efficient results essential for compelling policy implications. The study derives an efficient dynamic equation using the best error correction mechanism. Additionally, this study includes unconventional determinants, namely, foreign currency reserves and components of expenditure (i.e., exports, private consumption and government expenditures, and expenditures on investment goods), along with the traditional import demand function. The study finds that all conventional and unconventional determinants of import demand are significant in both the long and short run. All determinants except relative price positively influence the volume of import demand. The income elasticity reduces over time, and the price inelasticity remains non-zero and negative, which indicates the competitiveness of domestic product substitutes for importable goods in the economy. In the long run, trade liberalization and foreign currency reserves have a limited positive influence on import demand. The findings of this study would be helpful for import-related policy implications in the country.

Health care reform and financial crisis in the Netherlands: consequences for the financial arena of health care organizations.

Over the past decade, many health care systems across the Global North have implemented elements of market mechanisms while also dealing with the consequences of the financial crisis. Although effects of these two developments have been researched separately, their combined impact on the governance of health care organizations has received less attention. The aim of this study is to understand how health care reforms and the financial crisis together shaped new roles and interactions within health care. The Netherlands - where dynamics between health care organizations and their financial stakeholders (i.e., banks and health insurers) were particularly impacted - provides an illustrative case. Through semi-structured interviews, additional document analysis and insights from institutional change theory, we show how banks intensified relationship management, increased demands on loan applications and shifted financial risks onto health care organizations, while health insurers tightened up their monitoring and accountability practices towards health care organizations. In return, health care organizations were urged to rearrange their operations and become more risk-minded. They became increasingly dependent on banks and health insurers for their existence. Moreover, with this study, we show how institutional arenas come about through both the long-term efforts of institutional agents and unpredictable implications of economic and societal crises.

Design of a corporate financial crisis prediction model based on improved ABC-RNN+Bi-LSTM algorithm in the context of sustainable development.

In the context of sustainable economic development, while economic globalization brings new vitality to the company, it also makes the company face an increasingly severe external environment. The managers have to shift their focus to capital market investment. The excessive pursuit of investment benefits can easily lead to decision-making errors, resulting in a financial crisis for the company, and even may be forced to delist in severe cases. This article proposes a financial crisis prediction model based on Artificial Bee Colony-recurrent neural network (ABC-RNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) company with a characteristic attention mechanism. We combined ABC-RNN with Bi-LSTM to extract more temporal feature vectors from financial data. Then we introduced a feature attention mechanism to extract better depth features from financial data; the ABC algorithm is introduced to optimize the weight and bias of RNN to improve the reasoning speed and accuracy. The experiment shows that the prediction accuracy and recall of the model on the test set have reached 88.94% and 88.23%, respectively, which has good prediction ability. The outcome of this research helps the company to prevent and deal with the financial crisis in time and promote the sustainable development of the market economy.

Measuring economic crises impact transitioning to a circular economy.

Increasing global concern about climate change and the circular economy have successfully established itselves in international and national policies over the last decade, with the aim of reshaping the production and consumer behavior. The circular economy is one of the core pillars of European Union policy and its success depends on the energy efficiency, reducing production costs, and maintaining employment levels by ensuring continuous strong economic independency of the region. While crises are unavoidable and continue to appear, this paper aims to project the impact of any crisis on sustainability transitions using data analysis of the Global Financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 and discuss how the success of the circular economy implementation and environmental policies could be affected. The paper notes that the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 had a short-term positive impact on environmental degradation and that economic interests overshadowed environmental goals. Due to the recent events of the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war, COVID-19 societal and industrial behavior has shifted from sustainable to linear and has taken a step backward in reducing environmental pollution and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Analysis of already present data and the context of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, reviewing of COVID-19 impact on the global economy, health sector, and environmental policies allows us to predict the consequences, as it relates to the future of circular economy policy. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10668-023-03367-x).

The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis.

This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market's major stock index and eight sectoral indices, including the industrial, financial, service, information technology, basic metals, tourism, real estate investment, and chemical petrol plastic, during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis (GFC) within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis. This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors' multifractality and short- and long-term dependence. The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persistence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC. Second, the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak. Lastly, the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries. Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis, according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time, and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.

The fragile healthcare system in Lebanon: sounding the alarm about its possible collapse.

Lebanon is currently facing a complex and multifaceted healthcare crisis. The country has been grappling with a severe financial crisis since 2019, which has been compounded by the social unrest, the devastating Beirut blast in 2020, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Additionally, many hospitals in Lebanon are facing significant difficulties following the devaluation of the Lebanese currency, which has made it difficult for them to purchase necessary medical supplies and equipment. This report aims to examine the difficulties faced by hospitals in Lebanon due to these various factors, and to discuss potential solutions to address the crisis.

Financial and economic uncertainties and their effects on the economy.

We estimate new indices measuring financial and economic uncertainty in the euro area, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Austria, following the approach of Jurado et al. (Am Econ Rev 105:1177-1216, 2015), which measures uncertainty by the degree of predictability. We perform an impulse response analysis in a vector error correction framework, where we focus on the impact of both local and global uncertainty shocks on industrial production, employment and the stock market. We find that global financial and economic uncertainties have significant negative effects on local industrial production, employment, and the stock market, while we find hardly any influence of local uncertainty on these variables. In addition we perform a forecasting analysis, where we assess the merits of uncertainty indicators for forecasting industrial production, employment and the stock market, using different performance measures. The results suggest that financial uncertainty significantly improves the forecasts of the stock market in terms of profit-based measures, while economic uncertainty gives, in general, more insight when forecasting macroeconomic variables.

High frequency volatility spillover between oil and non-energy commodities during crisis and tranquil periods.

In this article, we scrutinize volatility spillover between oil and individual non-energy commodities during crisis and non-crisis periods. We use high-frequency data to capture the effects of both the global financial crisis (2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic between 2008 and 2022. To this end, we utilize wavelet coherence analysis to diagnose the magnitudes of dynamic co-movements and lead-lag effects between commodities. Our results provide evidence of strong coherence between oil and the majority of individual non-energy commodities during both crises. Precious metals were generally found to exhibit heightened levels of co-movement with oil as opposed to other non-energy commodities. On the other hand, weak co-movements were found between oil and a few commodities, namely soy, wheat, zinc, and tin. The lead-lag effects of oil on agricultural commodities, base metals, and precious metals were evident, especially during crisis periods. However, aluminium and precious metals, especially gold, silver, and palladium, also had a lead-lag effect on oil at different points in time, including during the pandemic. We further utilize dynamic frequency-domain connectedness for capturing pairwise volatility spillover indices, with the results providing evidence of heightened volatility spillovers during turbulent times. Our findings have significant implications for retail investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers.

This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis.

Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a "this time truly is different" moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) did more to counteract the downturn - especially in the Eurozone -, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.

Establishing a Multidisciplinary Team-Based Pleural Service in the Era of Financial Austerity: The Role of the Thoracic Surgeon.

Medical thoracoscopy/pleuroscopy has become, after bronchoscopy, the second most commonly utilized endoscopic procedure in interventional pulmonology. Due to their common origin, medical thoracoscopy/pleuroscopy and video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) are quite similar procedures technically. In contrast to the prevailing attitude that it should predominantly be performed by interventional pulmonologists, we believe that, like all hybrid-in-nature techniques, it should be implemented as part of a combined specialist care service/team. Herewith, we describe our attempt to establish a multidisciplinary pleural disease program during a difficult economic period for our country, comprising thoracic surgeons, pulmonologists and anesthesiologists, all of whom brought in their experience, expertise and resources to establish and develop the service resulting in a hybridization of the technique, with, as reported, quite favorable results.

The need to sustain funding for Afghanistan health system to prevent excess morbidity and mortality.

Background: The Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, managed by the World Bank through a contracted-out instrument called Sehatmandi, financed health service delivery in Afghanistan, with substantial achievements in infant, child and maternal health. After the collapse of the Afghan Government on 15 August 2021, the health system has been on the brink of collapse. Aims: We assessed the use of basic health services and estimated excess mortality resulting from the interruption to healthcare funding. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study that compared health services utilization from June to September for 3 consecutive years, 2019, 2020 and 2021, using 11 output indicators reported by the health management and information system. We used the Lives Saved Tool, a linear mathematical model with input data from the Afghanistan Demographic Health Survey 2015, to calculate the additional maternal, neonatal and child mortality at 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% reduction in health coverage. Results: During August and September 2021, after the announced ban on financing, health service utilization decreased to a range of 7-59%. Family planning, major surgeries and postnatal care showed the greatest decreases. Uptake of child immunization showed one-third decrease. Sehatmandi provides around 75% of primary and secondary health services: pausing funds to this programme will result in additional 2862 maternal deaths, 15 741 neonatal deaths, 30 519 child deaths, and 4057 stillbirths. Conclusion: Sustaining the current level of health services delivery is crucial to avoid excess, preventable morbidity and mortality in Afghanistan.

Multivariate models of commodity futures markets: a dynamic copula approach.

We apply flexible multivariate dynamic models to capture the dependence structure of various US commodity futures across different sectors between 2004 and 2022; particular attention is paid to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our copula-based models allow for time-varying nonlinear and asymmetric dependence by integrating elliptical and skewed copulas with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and block dynamic equicorrelation (Block DECO). Flexible copula models that allow for multivariate asymmetry and tail dependence are found to provide the best performance in characterizing co-movements of commodity returns. We also find that the connectedness between commodities has dramatically increased during the financial distress and the COVID-19 pandemic. The impacts of the financial crisis appear to be more persistent than those of the pandemic. We apply our models to some risk management tasks in the commodity markets. Our results suggest that optimal portfolio weights based on dynamic copulas have persistently outperformed the equal-weighted portfolio, demonstrating the practicality and usefulness of our proposed models.

Investigating Dynamical Complexity and Fractal Characteristics of Bitcoin/US Dollar and Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rates around the COVID-19 Outbreak.

This article investigates the dynamical complexity and fractal characteristics changes of the Bitcoin/US dollar (BTC/USD) and Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) returns in the period before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, we applied the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method to investigate the temporal evolution of the asymmetric multifractal spectrum parameters. In addition, we examined the temporal evolution of Fuzzy entropy, non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Shannon entropy, and Fisher information. Our research was motivated to contribute to the comprehension of the pandemic's impact and the possible changes it caused in two currencies that play a key role in the modern financial system. Our results revealed that for the overall trend both before and after the outbreak of the pandemic, the BTC/USD returns exhibited persistent behavior while the EUR/USD returns exhibited anti-persistent behavior. Additionally, after the outbreak of COVID-19, there was an increase in the degree of multifractality, a dominance of large fluctuations, as well as a sharp decrease of the complexity (i.e., increase of the order and information content and decrease of randomness) of both BTC/USD and EUR/USD returns. The World Health Organization (WHO) announcement, in which COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, appears to have had a significant impact on the sudden change in complexity. Our findings can help both investors and risk managers, as well as policymakers, to formulate a comprehensive response to the occurrence of such external events.